Tesla, the electric vehicle (EV) powerhouse led by Elon Musk, delivered an average of 4,889 vehicles a day in 2024, even as its full-year figures dipped slightly from 2023.
New research suggests that while headlines have focused on talk of an ‘EV winter’, quarter-by-quarter data shows a steadily improving trend through 2024—a signal that the company may be regaining momentum.
In the first quarter of last year, Tesla shipped 386,810 units (equating to 4,251 per day). By the fourth quarter, daily rates climbed to 5,387, with quarterly deliveries sitting at 443,956 in Q2 alone—a leap of nearly 15% from Q1. This upward trajectory gives rise to hopes that, if sustained, Tesla might top 600,000 deliveries in certain quarters of 2025.
However, this growth has come at a cost. Tesla introduced global price reductions, intended to stimulate demand in an increasingly competitive EV environment. While these strategies boosted deliveries, the firm’s Q4 revenue ended up £1.2 billion (approximately $1.5 billion) below many analysts’ forecasts, reflecting the impact on its margins. The strengthening fear of recession in early 2024 had begun to ease by mid-year, which may also have helped sales, though that economic optimism looks less certain as inflation has re-emerged in the US.
Concerns are mounting over President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariffs, with some investors bracing for potential knock-on effects. Analysts warn these trade barriers could hamper international supply chains, triggering more cautious spending across several sectors. Early data from the EU shows that January 2025 deliveries in numerous European markets are down by about 46% year-on-year, suggesting that Tesla’s fortunes could vary widely across different regions.
Market observers caution that reading the runes on Tesla can be tricky, particularly given its history of share price volatility. Much hinges on how it navigates upcoming regulatory changes, global economic challenges and Musk’s ambitious push beyond vehicles into artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. Tesla has teased a ‘robotaxi’ service and ‘Optimus’ humanoid robots as part of a future tech ecosystem. Whether these developments materialise at scale—or on time—remains to be seen.
As JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman remarked after Tesla’s latest earnings, the market’s exuberant reaction often “bears no relation whatsoever” to the firm’s underlying results. Despite signs of growth through 2024, investors will be watching closely to see if the company can sustain its deliveries trajectory in 2025 without sacrificing profitability.
