British companies selling via online marketplaces could be hit hard by Donald Trump’s forthcoming import regulations, with industry experts warning of a “second Brexit” in terms of disruption to trade.
The changes, introduced in early February but now paused, demand that goods originating from China and sold to the US pay standard import duty—of up to 15% for fashion items—plus an additional 10% tariff. The measures may significantly affect independent UK sellers on platforms such as eBay and Amazon, as well as online retailers like Asos and Boohoo that manufacture in China and rely on US sales.
Originally intended to curb a surge in cut-price imports from Chinese e-commerce giants such as Shein and Temu, the new requirements led to a massive uptick in parcels needing customs checks, overwhelming US border authorities. Implementation has been put on hold, yet many industry insiders believe it is only a matter of time before the policy takes effect. Observers add that the “de minimis” rule, which had previously exempted parcels under $800 (£635) from import duties and checks, looks set to be scrapped. Last year, more than a billion parcels benefiting from these rules reached the US, often containing items made in China or Hong Kong.
For British sellers, the prospect of higher fees and stricter checks presents a considerable barrier. According to Brad Ashton of consultancy firm RSM, such measures will increase shipping costs between $30 to $50 per consignment, squeezing margins and deterring smaller operators from accessing the vast American market. Some experts believe the impact could rival the upheaval caused by Brexit, especially for independent traders who lack the resources to absorb extra customs duties or reorganise supply chains.
“There’s a real risk the UK becomes uncompetitive overnight,” Ashton says. “If it costs too much to send goods stateside, many sellers may have to scale back or even exit the market.”
Although Asos and Boohoo already have global supply networks, the widespread use of Chinese factories means these larger brands also fall under the new regime. In theory, any product with even a small Chinese component could trigger US import duty, adding time and expense. John Stevenson, a retail analyst at Peel Hunt, points out that while the costs might not be “business-critical” for these fast-fashion giants, they will still need to reassess prices and shipping times if the tax regime tightens.
Critics of the move highlight that it may end up driving up prices for American consumers, while causing headaches for UK exporters navigating unexpected fees. Chris White of logistics firm Fulfilmentcrowd recalls that, when Trump’s rules briefly took effect in early February, nearly one-third of parcels shipped from the UK to the US were flagged for extra duties. The resulting confusion, including varying charges levied by local customs officials, harmed consumer confidence and posed additional challenges for e-tailers.
The removal of de minimis status for Chinese goods also raises questions about “British” or “European” branding, particularly for labels that rely heavily on Chinese production. With the possibility of origin checks and disclosure, some fear damage to brand reputations if goods touted as British are uncovered to be manufactured offshore. Longer term, UK companies might consider establishing US warehouses or shifting supply chains away from China to minimise disruption. Boohoo recently closed its American facility, and Asos plans to do the same this autumn, but a policy reversal could see them rethink such decisions.
It is still unclear when the policy might be reinstated. Trump’s administration must bolster the capacity of US Customs and Border Protection to handle the increased workload, a process that could take weeks or months. While there is a chance of yet another shift in stance—particularly as the US has backed down in past trade disputes—analysts say no British business can rely on changing political winds.
In the meantime, many UK marketplace sellers are left in limbo, preparing contingencies reminiscent of the Brexit period. For small players without the clout of major brands, that could mean anything from reduced margins to giving up on the lucrative American market altogether.
