British Airways has long been the target of customer ire—complaints about service standards, outdated technology and, most recently, contentious changes to its loyalty programme are far from rare.
Yet the carrier, part of the FTSE 100-listed International Airlines Group (IAG), is on course to announce a significant upswing in its fortunes next month. Financial analysts forecast annual earnings before interest and tax of over €4 billion (£3.4 billion) for 2024, aided by the 45 million passengers expected to have flown with BA, a figure close to its record of 47.7 million in 2019.
At the centre of BA’s rebound is chief executive Sean Doyle. His £7 billion investment plan—unveiled a year ago—takes aim at overhauling the airline’s finances, service offering and reliability. Half of that sum goes into acquiring new aircraft, including seven Boeing 787 Dreamliners and 18 777X jets from the Seattle planemaker, though the latter face production hold-ups. Another €2.1 billion is earmarked for IT improvements and engineering upgrades, while €1.4 billion will modernise premium cabins.
It is that premium sector that Doyle is most intent on developing, true to former BA boss Lord (John) King’s philosophy of “premium or nothing.” The plan is to add 20 per cent more premium economy seats, 15 per cent more business seats, and 10 per cent additional first-class spaces over the coming years, while the vast Airbus A380s are set for a refit that will boost premium capacity from 60 per cent to 72 per cent.
BA’s focus on the top end of the market is no surprise, given London’s status as the world’s biggest hub for upmarket international travel. Corporate travel is also on the rise post-pandemic, with estimates from Citi suggesting conferences in the US are once again drawing significant numbers of European business travellers.
However, it is not just about expansion. Doyle is betting on cost discipline, with BA rolling out “zero-based budgeting.” Each item of spending must be justified annually from scratch—a method that can yield savings but risks distracting staff from day-to-day operations. BA aims to save £500 million by 2027 through this approach, even though past adopters, including Kraft Heinz, have seen the pitfalls of poorly implemented cost-cutting.
One of the biggest lightning rods for criticism has been BA’s loyalty programme, which recently announced a shift to awarding points based on the cost of a flight or holiday booking rather than class and destination. This triggered a backlash—most vocally from Great Western Railway boss Mark Hopwood, who warned it could backfire badly by failing to appreciate the power of travellers’ emotions.
Doyle remains unmoved by the outcry, insisting that the changes merely bring fairness to a system that has not evolved in line with modern passenger expectations. He also faces the challenge of turning around perceptions of BA’s IT systems, which have been plagued by failures, including the memorable 2017 fiasco when a contractor accidentally pulled the plug at Boadicea House data centre.
Undaunted, Doyle has pressed ahead with a complete redevelopment of BA’s digital offering, discarding outdated applications in favour of a cloud-based system in partnership with Amazon Web Services. The move is intended to prevent further IT meltdowns and has culminated in a soon-to-be-released website and app, which Doyle promises will be “a complete leapfrog from where we are today.”
The airline’s problems are partly seen as the legacy of decisions made before the pandemic. Álex Cruz, Doyle’s predecessor, was accused of driving down costs too aggressively, resulting in underinvestment in IT, fleet upgrades and product quality. The impact was compounded by the UK’s approach to employment support during Covid, which saw BA lose many experienced staff.
Yet, according to industry observers like Andrew Lobbenberg at Barclays, BA’s key metrics, such as net promoter scores, are steadily improving, even if there remains ample room for progress. Robert Boyle, the airline’s former director of strategy, notes that the BA app—once considered a market leader—has fallen behind its rivals, and reversing this trend will be crucial to maintaining growth and warding off disgruntled passengers.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic headwinds remain a concern. Wars and diplomatic tensions can raise fuel costs, force flight diversions, and wreak havoc on schedules. Engine problems, particularly those involving Rolls-Royce’s Trent series, have already forced BA to curtail once-regular services, including a long-standing route to Kuwait. Such disruptions can be deeply frustrating for a carrier that is finally within sight of surpassing its pre-pandemic performance.
In Doyle’s view, a more dynamic corporate culture will help mitigate future shocks. “We are a much more agile, adaptive and responsive organisation than we were three or four years ago,” he says, confident that BA is now better placed to navigate whatever turbulence lies ahead.
For all the complaints—from loyalty revamps to service hiccups—BA’s surging passenger numbers and financial gains suggest that Doyle’s plan may be paying off. The airline’s next set of results, due shortly, are expected to cement its comeback, even if winning back the hearts and minds of disgruntled frequent fliers may prove to be a slightly longer flight path.
