London’s black cab industry is at risk of disappearing entirely by 2045 if current trends continue, according to a new report by Centre for London.
The research highlights a dramatic decline in the number of taxis on the capital’s roads and warns that urgent intervention is needed from the government, the Mayor of London, and Transport for London (TfL) to prevent the trade from vanishing.
The number of licensed black cabs has fallen by more than a third (34.5%) in the past decade, dropping from 22,810 in 2013-14 to just 14,470 today. In contrast, private hire vehicle (PHV) operators, including Uber, Bolt, and Addison Lee, have seen significant growth, with the number of licensed drivers increasing by 82% since 2010 to reach 107,884 in 2023-24.
Centre for London’s findings suggest that without immediate action, black cabs could become a thing of the past, despite their continued popularity. A survey found that two-thirds (66%) of Londoners believe more should be done to support the trade, and 78% expect black cabs to still exist in 100 years.
The report identifies rising costs and dwindling financial support as key factors in the black cab industry’s struggles. The introduction of electric taxis in 2017 has pushed up costs significantly, with the upfront price of a new cab increasing by 39%.
Government support has also diminished. The TfL scrappage scheme, which offered cabbies £10,000 to retire older vehicles that didn’t meet low-emission standards, ended in 2022. Meanwhile, the Department for Transport’s Plug-in Taxi Grant has been reduced from £7,500 to £4,000 and will be scrapped entirely by 2026. As a result, the total grant available for buying a new taxi has dropped from £17,500 in 2017 to nothing by 2026.
The financial pressures have contributed to a dramatic fall in new driver numbers. In 2024, only 104 new taxi licences were issued, compared to 1,010 in 2016.
The world-famous Knowledge of London exam—required to qualify as a black cab driver—is also viewed as a significant barrier to recruitment. The test, which takes at least three years to complete, deters many potential drivers.
An industry survey found that while 52% of PHV drivers had considered becoming a black cab driver, 44% said the process took too long, and 29% felt the exam was too difficult.
Centre for London has proposed several measures to reverse the decline, including: Reforming the Knowledge of London test to encourage more drivers to qualify and reduce the 66% dropout rate and introducing an interest-free loan scheme for newly qualified drivers to help them purchase new taxis, similar to Scotland’s Switched On Taxis Loan programme.
Antonia Jennings, CEO of Centre for London, stressed the urgency of the situation: “Black cabs are a fundamental part of London’s cityscape. We must not let them become part of the capital’s history. Alongside their cultural status, cabs offer what Londoners need today – accessible, convenient, and safe transport. We should not be removing these options from the street.
“It’s simply unthinkable for London taxis to become extinct by 2045. Government must step up to support the black cab industry and turn this declining trajectory around before it’s too late.”
Sam Pooke, Head of Public Policy at FREENOW, backed the report’s recommendations and called for immediate intervention from policymakers, saying: “Taxis are an integral part of London’s transport network, providing high-quality, safe, accessible journeys for millions of people every year. However, these findings show that without intervention from the Mayor of London, TfL, and central government, the iconic London black cab could soon become a thing of the past.
“Despite rising costs for taxi drivers, financial support from TfL and central government has become almost non-existent. FREENOW strongly endorses the recommendations in this report, and we are calling on the Mayor to instruct TfL to set out a clear strategy for recruiting and retaining taxi drivers as part of its upcoming Action Plan.”
Steve McNamara, General Secretary of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association (LTDA), echoed the urgency of the situation: “This important report highlights many of the challenges facing London’s licensed taxi drivers, most notably lack of road access, rising vehicle and operating costs, and the withdrawal of local and national government financial support to assist drivers in making the transition to zero-emission vehicles.
“We’ve been here since the time of Oliver Cromwell, and we aren’t going anywhere soon. But London’s iconic taxi trade is at a crossroads – with the right support, we can cement its crucial role as a fully accessible part of London’s transport mix and the world’s best and greenest taxi service. However, without such support, our trade faces very real existential threats, and these can no longer be ignored by policymakers.”
With the fate of London’s black cab industry hanging in the balance, the pressure is now on the government, TfL, and City Hall to take decisive action before one of the capital’s most recognisable symbols disappears from its streets for good.
