PHILIPPINE SUGAR production will likely remain flat in 2026 at 1.85 million metric tons (MMT), according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Sugar farmers will continue to plant cane despite declining mill site prices in marketing year (MY) 2025 in anticipation of increases in the following year, the USDA said in a report, citing its Foreign Agriculture Service.
The USDA has forecast Philippine sugar production for 2024-2025 to decline to 1.85 MMT from 1.92 MMT a year earlier.
The estimate is higher than the Sugar Regulatory Administration’s (SRA) 1.78-MMT projection.
The USDA said rainfall supported cane planting from October to March in major sugarcane areas such as Negros Occidental, Bukidnon, Panay, and Batangas.
As of March 23, the SRA reported raw production of 1.4 MMT.
The USDA said land area planted to cane will remain flat in 2026, citing limited opportunities for expansion to replace land converted for residential and industrial use.
“Farmers will continue to plant cane in anticipation of price increases,” it said. “Crop shifting to corn will be minimal in MY 2026 due to declining corn prices.”
While mill site prices are expected to fall until the end of MY 2025, wholesale prices are showing an increasing trend “despite the large sugar stocks available,” according to the report.
The price of raw sugar is determined on a weekly basis via a bidding process initiated by planters’ associations, whose offices are located inside the mill compound. The result of the bidding in Negros Occidental, the major producing province, becomes the reference price for other planters’ associations nationwide.
Retail prices remain elevated but have been on a downward trend from 2023, the report said.
“Prices continue to be higher than P80 ($1.38) per kilo, despite supply being relatively stable,” it said.
It noted imported refined sugar from Southeast Asian can sell for between P60 to P65 per kilo.
The report said Philippine sugar demand will remain flat for MY 2026, adding that the high price of sugar and sugar-containing products will continue to discourage an increase in consumption.
Industrial users — largely the beverage industry, preserved fruit, and confectionery producers — account for 50% of domestic sugar demand, followed by households at 32%, and institutions 18%.
Sugar withdrawal from warehouses remains low compared to previous years, an indication of weak consumption, the report said.
“This will continue with the prevailing high retail prices.”
It said the Philippines’ exports to the US, which the sole export market for sugar in recent years, will likely hit 91,000 MT this year.
The SRA in March issued an order calling for voluntary exports of 66,000 MT of raw sugar to the US, in keeping with its obligations under the US Raw Sugar Tariff-Rate Quota World Trade Allocation.
Participants complying with the order will be allowed to import 2.5 kilograms of refined sugar for every kilogram of raw sugar exported to the US.
The report expects the Philippines to import 300,000 MT of refined sugar in MY 2026.
For MY 2025, refined sugar imports are forecast to hit 221,000 MT.
“The large refined sugar imports in MY 2025 translated into high carryover stocks of 356,000 MT,” the report noted.
It said ending stocks will remain high in MY 2026 but will decline modestly year on year, noting that sugar withdrawals continue to be low compared to previous years.
“Raw inventory is expected to be high at the start of the milling season. With the ongoing harvest, there will be a build-up of raw sugar if it is not sold in the market,” it said. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza
