By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter
THE Marcos administration will likely maintain control over the House of Representatives after the Philippine midterm elections, with admin-endorsed candidates benefiting from access to established political machinery, political analysts said on Monday.
But congressional support for President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. could erode over time due to his waning approval ratings, potentially leading to shifts in political alliances that could derail his legislative agenda.
“They possess an advantage over their opponents because they are the incumbent, they have more resources and they have the machinery,” Dennis C. Coronacion, who heads the University of Sto. Tomas Political Science Department, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
The House has traditionally remained under the influence of the President, with congressmen often aligning with the policies of the sitting leader.
Filipinos on Monday casted their votes to fill all 318 seats in the legislative chamber, a dozen seats in the 24-member Senate, and thousands of local posts.
“Whatever the results of the midterm elections might be, if Mr. Marcos’ popularity keeps on falling while Vice-President Sara Duterte’s keeps on rising, then it would be difficult to form coalitions that can back up a legislative agenda,” Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at the De La Salle University, said via Facebook chat.
Mr. Marcos’ public approval rating fell to a record in March while Ms. Duterte’s rating hit an all-time high, according to a Pulse Asia Research, Inc. poll results in April.
“If the House will still be dominated by Marcos allies, the legislative agenda of the administration will be supported at the House level,” Maria Ela L. Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, said via Viber.
“However, a more fragmented House composition will lead to failure to push the administration’s legislative agenda,” she added.
House Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez in early May said the chamber would focus on passing bills seeking to boost job creation and support small businesses, while also looking at modernizing the agriculture sector when the next Congress convenes.
DUTERTE CHALLENGESome lawmakers are expected to realign with the Duterte camp when the House convenes for the first regular session of the 20th Congress, with Mr. Romualdez’s grip on the chamber likely to be challenged by someone from the Duterte camp, said Arjan P. Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University.
“Some of them will start to side with the Dutertes for the second half of the Marcos regime,” he said via Facebook chat. “Expect that membership of administration political parties to start dwindling due to party switching, which could happen as early as before the State of the Nation Address in July.”
“Congressmen are always siding with the winnable presidential candidate years before the next presidential election,” he added.
Ms. Duterte had emerged as a frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election, setting the stage for a challenge against the Marcos clan amid a political feud that resulted in her impeachment. However, she faces a Senate trial in June, where a ruling could potentially bar her from holding public office permanently, casting uncertainty over her presidential ambitions.
“This midterm election is meant to consolidate the control of the Dutertes, to make sure she does not get impeached, to rally their supporters and secure the presidency,” said Mr. Aguirre.
The May election carries significant political stakes following the collapse of the once-solid alliance between the Marcos and Duterte families, which escalated into a bitter feud last year.
“Unfortunately, it was reduced to a mere extension of the political squabbling between the two factions,” Mr. Aguirre said. “We did not talk about more important issues or policies to be prioritized in the next Congress.”
“Our attention was forced to be focused on the mudslinging and excessive politicking brought by the impeachment and ICC (International Criminal Court) arrest of Mr. Duterte,” he added.
