By Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporter
METRO MANILA’S residential market is projected to see tempered launches of mid-income condominiums over the next three years, although anticipated interest rate cuts and steady inflows of remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) could help support demand for the segment, according to Colliers Philippines.
“Colliers is optimistic that further interest rate cuts and sustained remittances from Filipinos working abroad should partly lift the demand for mid-income projects,” Colliers said in its First Quarter Metro Manila Residential Report.
Pre-selling launches in the first quarter reached around 5,300 units, marking the highest quarterly level since the third quarter of 2023, Colliers said.
Among the notable projects launched during the period were Avida Land’s Avida Towers Makati Southpoint Tower 3 in Makati; 8990 Holdings, Inc.’s Urban Deca Tondo – Bldg. 7 in Tondo; and Shang Robinsons Properties’ Haraya Residences – North Residences in Bridgetowne, Pasig.
Despite the higher volume of launches, net take-up reached only 87 pre-selling units during the period, Colliers said.
Total back-outs, particularly for older developments, rose to 4,700 units in the first quarter, with the lower and upper mid-income segments accounting for 65% of the total.
Colliers said the central bank’s monetary easing, along with continued OFW remittance inflows, is likely to support a recovery in residential demand.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% in April.
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said the Monetary Board is open to two more rate cuts this year, with one possibly as early as June.
Cash remittances rose by 2.7% in the first quarter, based on BSP data.
“Lower interest rates should result in lower mortgage rates, and this should guide developers with their promos and payment schemes,” Colliers said.
In response, developers are advised to offer more flexible and curated payment terms for ready-for-occupancy (RFO) units, including leasing and early move-in promotions, it added.
Colliers also noted that developers must assess optimal product types and price points when expanding in key locations.
Upscale to luxury projects continue to perform well in central business districts such as Fort Bonifacio, the Makati Central Business District, and the Bay Area.
Meanwhile, mid-income projects remain more attractive in fringe locations such as Alabang–Las Piñas, Manila North, Makati Fringe, Mandaluyong, and the Caloocan–Malabon–Navotas–Valenzuela (CAMANAVA) corridor.
The residential vacancy rate in Metro Manila is expected to reach an all-time high of 26% in 2025, driven by the complete exit of Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs) and the scheduled completion of new condominium developments.
Colliers expects pre-selling launches to remain subdued in the near term.
From 2025 to 2027, new supply in Metro Manila is projected to average 5,800 units annually, down significantly from the 13,000-unit yearly average recorded from 2017 to 2019, during the peak of POGO-driven demand.
Despite the projected slowdown, Colliers said it is “not all doom and gloom” for the Metro Manila residential market.
“Recovery will focus around launching the ideal residential product at the right location with a viable price and favorable terms,” it said.
