Philippine GDP growth print lowered to 3.9% in 3rd quarter

THE PHILIPPINE Statistics Authority (PSA) on Wednesday said it downwardly revised the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.9% from the 4% initially reported.

The revision brought the nine-month average growth to 4.9%, down from the 5% initially estimated.

This is well below the 5.5%-6.5% growth target of the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) for 2025.

The PSA will release the fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP data today (Jan. 29).

A recent BusinessWorld poll of 18 economists yielded a median estimate of 4.2% for the fourth quarter and 4.8% for the full year.

To meet the poll’s 4.8% estimate for 2025, fourth-quarter GDP growth must hit at least 4.4%. Fourth-quarter GDP must expand by 7.2% to reach 5.5% or the low end of the DBCC’s target.

If realized, GDP growth in 2025 would still be slower than the 5.7% GDP growth in 2024.

The PSA downwardly revised third-quarter figures for electricity, steam, water and waste management (-0.6% from 0.6% previously), real estate and ownership of dwellings (4% from 4.7%), and accommodation and food service activities (4.8% from 5.7%). These revisions mainly contributed to the lower overall third-quarter GDP expansion.

Lower revisions were also given to education (6.4% from 6.8% previously) and other services (4.4% from 5.1%).

In terms of expenditure, third-quarter growth for private consumption and government spending were left unchanged at 4.1% and 5.8%, respectively.

Gross national income was lowered to 5.4% from the 5.6% preliminary estimate. Similarly, the net primary income from the rest of the world for the July-to-September period was trimmed to 16.2% from 16.9% previously.

The PSA said that national account estimates are lowered based on an approved revision policy, which is aligned with international standard practices. — Matthew Miguel L. Castillo