SENATORIAL preference surveys are proliferating these days as May 12 draws near and impeachment issues hover in the minds of politicians. Some survey reports are sending shock waves among the thinking public because candidates over the age of retirement (i.e., aged 69-79) and new aspirant-celebrities with nary any experience in law-making land in the top 12 among the 66 aspirants.
How is a survey done in the first place? In the academe, the survey is the most popular method to use in scientific research or thesis writing. Young people from high school until graduate school are all too familiar with this.
According to 2025 data from the Commission on Elections (Comelec), the total voting population is 68.8 million Filipinos. The survey agencies get sample sizes running from 1,200 to 2,400 of the total voting population, but when reported on the media generalize this as all Filipino voters from the tip of North Luzon to the tail of South Mindanao. With such miniscule sample sizes, the sampling technique should be multi-stage representing Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. From these areas, we go to the next stage — identify the 18 regions, then select from among the provinces per region, down to the cities, municipalities and finally the barangays. At the selected barangays (from a total of 42,029 barangays), random sampling of voters could be done.
If relevant demographic variables are factored in, the sampling becomes more rigorous — to include the status of the voter’s registration, age, sex or gender orientation, occupation, income, religious affiliation, education, and socioeconomic class (whether belonging to class A, B, C, D or E). Conducting a scientific survey is meaningful if data disaggregation is made.
However, this entire process will cost millions of pesos and require a huge survey team. Considering all the variables mentioned, the survey sheet will be packed with questions that may consist of three to five pages. This can exhaust the energy of the surveyors and even the respondents. Add to this is complying with research ethics, that is, to get the respondents to sign “confirmed consent” that will establish their willingness to answer the questions.
Not all the picked samples have the time or willingness to participate in surveys. Here comes the temptation to do non-probability convenience sampling or to pick only those willing to answer.
How the questions are phrased is another aspect to look into to ensure objectivity — they should not contain questions leaning towards any candidate. Does the questionnaire cover all the 66 candidates or selected candidates only?
What about candid reactions such as: “Kelan po ang election?,” “Sino ang mga tumatakbo?,” “Hindi ko pa iniisip kasi matagal pa” (When is the election?, Who is running?, I have not thought of it yet as the elections are still far away.) Are these captured in the datasets because these reactions are so interesting that they should be subjected to interpretations too. Extrapolation is another possibility in producing survey reports where statisticians work on existing datasets, utilize regression analysis to add new variables and make election forecasts.
Comelec data shows that 63% of the 2025 voters are Gen Zs and Millennials aged 18 to 44. Getting the pulse of these two generations is significant enough and will fit better in the tiny sample sizes. To quote the classic line of our hero Jose Rizal “ang kabataan ay ang pag-asa ng bayan” (the youth is the hope of the nation). So why not focus on the pag-asa ng bayan? Focusing on these age cohorts may also give us clues about their behaviors: are the noontime, game shows, and teleserye (TV series) the sources of information and entertainment of these young people? Do these age cohorts pin their hopes on retire-able senators despite there being no laws associated with their names, notwithstanding their educational background or lack thereof?
Two survey agencies have disclosed that there are commissioned surveys. When a survey is uncommissioned, the agency keeps a list of “subscribers” who can gain access to their complete datasets for a fee. Whether commissioned or uncommissioned, there must be transparency in the methods because the topic is of public concern, of national interest — the future officials of this country who are policymakers and recipients of salaries emanating from people’s taxes.
We in the academe are mandated to do research, following the epistemological philosophy: to know the truth surrounding an issue. Otherwise, surveys are tools for propaganda which we know are part and parcel in battles for power.
Maria Catalina M. Tolentino, PhD is an associate professor at University of the Philippines School of Labor and Industrial Relations. She teaches research methods and was a recipient of professorial chairs and centennial faculty grants.
