Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 200% tariff on wine and champagne imports from the European Union could provide an unexpected boost for English sparkling wine, as US importers look for alternatives to French champagne.
Hugo Stewart, a winemaker based in Wiltshire, had been considering cancelling a planned tasting trip to the United States but is now reconsidering after Trump’s announcement. “Maybe there’s an opportunity for us to replace some of the champagne,” he said.
Stewart’s hunch was quickly validated. The day after Trump’s comments, he received an order from an Oregon importer who had long expressed interest in stocking Domaine Hugo, his sparkling wine, but had not acted on it until now.
Trump’s proposed tariffs are part of an escalating trade dispute with the EU, which plans to introduce a 50% tariff on US whiskey. While Trump has framed his move as a boost for American winemakers, the shift could also create an opening for British producers.
Economists suggest that if US consumers are forced to pay a premium for French champagne, they may turn to English sparkling wine as an alternative. Martin Jacob, an economic adviser to the German finance ministry and a professor at the University of Navarra’s IESE business school, said the tariffs could end up benefiting British exports.
“Instead of substituting the European product, American customers might substitute it with British products,” he said. “In that sense, it could well be that the Brits actually benefit here.”
The UK’s wine industry remains relatively small but is expanding rapidly. According to WineGB, the industry body for English and Welsh wine, exports doubled from 4% to 8% of total sales in just two years, with producers selling a record 8.8 million bottles in 2023. The US is already the third-largest export market for English and Welsh wine, after Scandinavia and Japan.
Patrick McGrath, co-founder of Domaine Evremond, a Kent-based sparkling wine estate developed in partnership with Pierre-Emmanuel Taittinger, acknowledged that if UK wine remains exempt from tariffs, there could be advantages.
“There, of course, would be a benefit to British wine,” he said. However, he stressed that the uncertainty created by trade disputes is a major concern. “There should be no tariffs at all. It’s a disaster and we’re all in the same boat … It’s definitely not good news.”
McGrath’s vineyard is about to launch its first bottles in the US in the coming weeks, a well-timed move given the potential impact of the tariffs. “There’s definitely a growing market,” he said. “Mainly on the east coast and maybe a bit on the west.”
Yet, some in the industry remain wary. Given Trump’s history of targeting British exports, some fear that UK wine could find itself in the crosshairs if trade tensions escalate further. In 2019, his administration imposed a 25% tariff on Scotch whisky as part of a dispute over pre-Brexit Airbus subsidies, costing distilleries an estimated £600 million before the levies were lifted under President Biden in 2021.
For some winemakers, the unpredictability of tariffs poses a logistical headache. Wendy Outhwaite, co-founder of Ambriel Sparkling, which produces wine near the South Downs National Park, noted that sudden tariff changes could create chaos for exporters.
“It takes a long time to ship wine to the US, so the worst possible outcome would be if your product is halfway across the Atlantic and then suddenly you’ve got an unexpected 200% tariff put on it,” she said.
While some traders anticipated a potential trade war and stocked up on European wine before Christmas, many in the industry believe the risk of further tariffs remains high. Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING, suggested that Trump is now more ideologically committed to protectionist policies than during his first term.
“Our take is really this time Donald Trump is much less transactional than many of us in Europe had always thought. We expect that he will really push through with the tariffs,” he said. “Hoping something happens that sees tariffs avoided is a bit premature — and it would probably be a bit naive in all honesty.”
Despite the upheaval, some industry insiders believe that the demand for high-end products like champagne will persist, even if prices rise. “With a 200% tariff, consumption would go down quite a bit, but you’re always going to get that core group of people who have got money and just want to drink champagne,” Stewart said.
For now, English winemakers can only wait to see how the situation unfolds—hoping that US consumers, faced with steeper prices for their usual choices, might start looking towards Britain’s growing wine scene instead.
