British manufacturers are retreating from the United States as a key export market in the face of growing trade uncertainty and punitive tariffs driven by former President Donald Trump’s protectionist agenda.
For the first time in the history of Make UK’s quarterly survey, the US has fallen out of the top three regions where UK manufacturers expect to do business. The stark shift in sentiment, revealed in the latest data from the industrial employers’ lobby group, reflects deepening concern across the sector that American trade policies are damaging long-standing transatlantic commercial ties.
Make UK’s survey of its 20,000 corporate members, conducted in partnership with the accountancy firm BDO, found that 60 per cent of UK manufacturers expect the Trump-era tariffs to harm their business. Just 4 per cent of those surveyed said they plan to invest in or establish new operations in the US, signalling a steep decline in confidence.
The economic backdrop is already fragile. British manufacturers are grappling with persistent inflationary pressures—most notably from soaring energy costs—which Make UK says are pushing the country to the brink of “de-industrialisation”.
In response, the group has slashed its forecast for UK manufacturing growth, now predicting the sector will contract by 0.2 per cent in 2025, following a flat 2024. This is a sharp reversal from previous expectations of modest recovery. The group has also downgraded its 2026 forecast from 1 per cent growth to a contraction of 0.5 per cent, following the announcement that exports to the US dropped by £2 billion in April—the largest monthly decline since records began in 1997.
“Manufacturers are facing a gathering storm of huge uncertainty in one of their major markets, a skills crisis and eye-watering energy costs which are providing a harsh reality for many,” said Seamus Nevin, chief economist at Make UK. “It’s absolutely essential that the forthcoming industrial strategy takes bold measures to bring down the cost of energy and takes equally radical action to ensure companies can access the people they need to take advantage of a more competitive landscape.”
Nevin warned that without urgent action, the UK faces “the serious prospect of accelerating into de-industrialisation”.
The US, once a reliable and growing export destination, has now slipped behind the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions in terms of projected trade engagement. The European Union remains the dominant trading bloc for UK manufacturers, but the shifting dynamics point to a broader reorientation in global strategy for many companies.
It’s not just British manufacturers sounding the alarm. Make UK cited a parallel survey by the National Association of Manufacturers in the US, which showed American manufacturing confidence has plummeted to its lowest point since the Covid-19 pandemic. Trade policy uncertainty was identified as the single biggest concern.
The findings will add to mounting pressure on the Labour government, which has been in office for nearly a year, to finally deliver on its long-promised industrial strategy. The business community is calling for decisive action to address spiralling energy costs and structural labour shortages, both of which are stifling growth and investment in a sector that remains critical to the UK’s economic future.
While the US remains a formidable global economy, the signals from Britain’s manufacturing base are clear: under the shadow of trade wars, tariff barriers, and rising uncertainty, confidence is ebbing—and exporters are looking elsewhere.
