Greggs is increasing prices on some of its best-known menu items as the bakery chain seeks to offset rising employment costs while managing softer sales growth.
From Thursday, customers will pay 5p more for certain baked goods such as the empire biscuit, while breakfast deals will also rise in price. The two-part breakfast deal, which includes a roll and a drink, will increase from £2.95 to £3.15, while the three-part version, adding a side like a yoghurt pot or hash browns, will rise from £3.95 to £4.15.
Chief executive Roisin Currie said the group remained committed to keeping prices as low as possible but added: “We are operating in an inflationary environment.”
The price hikes were announced alongside third-quarter results showing like-for-like sales up 1.5% in the 13 weeks to 27 September, slowing from 2.6% growth in the first half of the year.
Greggs had previously warned that summer heatwaves dampened demand for hot baked goods in July, forcing it to cut annual earnings guidance. The company now expects full-year operating profit to be “modestly” below the £195.3m recorded in 2024, with analysts forecasting around £176m.
Encouragingly, trading conditions improved in August and September, allowing Greggs to hold its revised guidance. That reassurance triggered a 7.2% share price rally, lifting the stock to £17.20 and squeezing hedge funds who had shorted the shares. Greggs remains one of the most shorted companies in London, with 5.1% of its stock on loan to investors betting against it.
Greggs, which operates 2,675 shops, opened a net 57 new outlets this year but now expects to add around 120 net stores in 2025 — down from earlier guidance of 140–150, citing “timing of opportunities.” The chain continues to expand in supermarkets including Tesco and Sainsbury’s, while targeting new transport, roadside and retail park locations.
Currie dismissed talk of “peak Greggs,” insisting the company could grow its estate to more than 3,000 shops long term. She pointed to evolving customer tastes, with the bakery introducing high-protein options such as egg pots and protein shakes alongside its traditional sausage rolls and steak bakes.
Analysts remain cautious. Panmure Liberum noted that while slower store openings were a concern, an improving cost outlook supported confidence in Greggs’ guidance. Clive Black at Shore Capital warned that falling like-for-like volumes posed longer-term questions about whether Greggs has reached its growth ceiling, commenting:
“Like-for-like volume is not the be-all and end-all, but it is going to be a key concern of existing and prospective investors.”
Despite lingering doubts, the market rally suggests investors see Greggs’ cost discipline and resilience as positives — at least for now.
