The global market for humanoid robots could be worth as much as $9 trillion by 2050, with China expected to dominate demand and basic household models potentially entering homes within the next five years, according to new research.
A report by Royal Bank of Canada estimates that humanoid robots could become a core part of everyday life over the coming decades, transforming labour markets and household routines. The household sector alone is forecast to account for roughly $2.9 trillion of the total market, representing around a third of global demand.
Early versions of humanoid robots are likely to be limited in capability, initially serving niche roles such as entertainment devices or personal fitness assistants. More advanced functionality, including complex household tasks and care duties, is expected to take significantly longer to mature, with widespread adoption of fully capable domestic robots unlikely for up to 20 years.
China is expected to emerge as the world’s largest market, accounting for around 60 per cent of total demand by mid-century. Analysts suggest that multiple humanoid robots could become commonplace in Chinese households, driven by demographic pressures and an ageing population.
Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Global Markets and co-author of the report, said attitudes towards humanoid robots in Asia differ markedly from those in the West. In many Asian economies, he said, robots are viewed less as science fiction and more as a practical solution to structural challenges such as elderly care and shrinking workforces.
“In Asia, humanoids are seen as a necessity,” Narayan said. “In 25 years, you could see hundreds of millions of these robots in households, helping with everything from caring for the elderly to everyday tasks like ironing clothes or grooming. Once adoption begins at scale, it is likely to accelerate very quickly.”
The rapid growth of the sector has already prompted caution from policymakers in Beijing. China’s National Development and Reform Commission recently warned of a potential bubble forming in the humanoid robotics industry, noting that more than 150 companies are now working on similar technologies. Officials have raised concerns that excessive duplication could dilute investment and slow meaningful innovation.
By 2050, the report suggests humanoid robots could replace up to 40 per cent of labour-intensive roles across sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and cleaning. Proponents argue this could free workers from repetitive and physically demanding jobs, allowing them to move into higher-value or more fulfilling work.
Investment interest is also accelerating in the United States, particularly in Silicon Valley. Sam Altman, chief executive of OpenAI, has backed robotics start-ups including 1X Technologies and Figure AI. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is developing Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot at Tesla, with production expected to begin in 2026 and ambitious plans to manufacture up to one million units within five years.
Some experts question whether a human-like form is the most efficient design for robots, arguing that specialised machines may be better suited to many tasks. However, Narayan believes economies of scale could ultimately make humanoid robots the most cost-effective option, particularly if they can perform a wide range of functions in environments designed for humans.
He added that the long-term business model for humanoid robots may resemble that of smartphones, with hardware sold at scale and ongoing revenues generated through software and applications, drawing parallels with Apple’s app-based ecosystem.
If the forecasts prove accurate, humanoid robots could move from novelty to necessity within a generation, reshaping households, labour markets and global technology supply chains.
