Global growth is projected to slow to 2.6% this year as trade activity weakens and tariff effects intensify, according to the World Bank. Several supportive factors that buoyed growth in previous years are fading, and trade growth is expected to soften as firms scale back inventory accumulation.
At the same time, the World Economic Forum (WEF) describes uncertainty as the “defining theme” of the global risks outlook in 2026. Based on its Global Risks Perception Survey, 50% of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy global outlook over the next two years. That share rises to 57% over the next decade. Only 1% foresee a calm outlook across both time horizons.
Fragile economy
The World Bank cautions that global growth could falter if trade tensions worsen or if financial market sentiment deteriorates. Asset price corrections, fiscal concerns and unexpected inflation spikes could further dampen activity.
Geoeconomic confrontation, according to the WEF, ranks as the top risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026, selected by 18% of respondents. State-based armed conflict follows at 14%.
Economic downturn rises eight positions to rank 11th. Inflation also climbs eight places to 21st. Asset bubble burst moves up seven positions to 18th.
The survey also finds that 68% of respondents expect a multipolar or fragmented global order over the next 10 years, where major and middle powers contest regional rules. Only 6% anticipate a return to a unipolar, rules-based order.
Mounting debt concerns and potential asset bubbles could also usher in volatility, especially if paired with rising geopolitical rivalry. Such pressures, according to the WEF, could heighten volatility for businesses and governments.
Workforce and technological challenges
Think tank The Conference Board’s C-Suite Outlook for 2026 finds that global leaders worry most about workforce challenges and regulation.
Among specific risks identified are cyberattacks (46.5%), supply chain disruptions (41.6%), and finding qualified workers (37.2%).
In terms of technological risks, the WEF reports that misinformation and disinformation rank second on the two-year outlook. Cyber insecurity ranks sixth.
Adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence show the largest increase in long-term ranking, as it may affect labor markets, societies and global security over the next decade. The risk moves from 30th place in the two-year outlook to fifth place over a 10-year horizon.
Environmental risks and social polarization
While environmental risks decline in ranking over the next two years, they remain dominant over a 10-year horizon. Extreme weather events rank as the top long-term risk. Half of the top 10 risks over the next decade are environmental in nature.
The WEF links continued extreme weather and climate change to strains on aging infrastructure, supply chains, and electrical grids.
Meanwhile, inequality ranks as the most interconnected global risk for the second consecutive year. The report warns that narratives pitting “streets versus elites” deepen disillusionment with governance systems. Hence, the convergence of economic stress and political rivalry places added pressure on public trust and institutional stability.
PHL progress and vulnerability
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) notes that the Philippines has posted strong growth and rapid poverty reduction over the past 15 years, supported by macroeconomic stability and social protection.
However, demographic tailwinds are fading and climate risks are intensifying, making long-term income goals more challenging. In fact, the Philippine Institute for Development Studies notes that the country narrowly missed the upper-middle-income country threshold in 2024.
Externally, the country runs a persistent trade deficit as imports outpace exports. Services exports, particularly in information technology and business process management, cushion the gap. Risks include possible tariff escalation in the United States, supply-chain realignments under regional trade agreements and geopolitical tensions.
Beyond macroeconomic indicators, the OECD says sustaining high and broad-based growth will require structural reforms to foster competition, deepen trade and investment openness, improve governance and strengthen incentives for formal job creation, alongside climate mitigation and adaptation policies. — Mhicole A. Moral
